02 - 2003

Growing older in Germany

Changes in the age structure of the German population

Opportunities and challenges

The proportion of aged persons in the total population is continually increasing. What does this mean for the self-image of senior citizens? What public burdens are placed on individuals, the society and the state?

As of 31 December 1998, about 82 million people were living in the Federal Republic of Germany: 42 million women (51%) and 40 million men (49%). Of these, 17.6 million (21%) were children and youth under 20 years; 46.1 million (56%) were of age to be gainfully employed, from 20 to under 60, and 18.4 million (22%) were 60 years old or older.
A girl born in Germany around the year 1900 had a life expectancy of 48 years or more; a newborn boy could expect 45 years. A baby born in 1998 could expect to live about 30 years longer. The average life expectancy had increased about seven years just since 1970.

The cause of the increasing life expectancy of the population in the 20th century was first of all the drastic decrease in infant and child mortality, which had the consequence that the proportion of the population which lived into old age grew considerably. Future increases in life expectancy can be expected especially in the lengthening of old age. A woman who was 60 in 1998 could expect to live, on average, another 23 years (around 1900 it was 14 years, in 1970, 19 years). An average man who was 60 in 1998 could look forward to 19 more years (compared to 13 years around 1900 and 15 years around 1970).

According to all forecasts, this development is expected to continue, causing the number of aged persons to increase considerably in the future. The proportion of persons over 80, which was about 0.5% of the population in 1900 and by 1998 had risen to 4%, should reach about 12% by 2050.

Thus the age structure of the population has been altering in favour of older age groups since the end of the 19th century, a development which will continue to accelerate. According to the models published by the Federal Office of Statistics, the population of Germany will decrease to about 65 to 70 million by 2050, even allowing for a yearly increase of 100,000 to 200,000 due to immigration. At the same time, the numerical proportions of different age groups to one another will undergo further significant changes.

The proportion of persons under 20 will decrease from about 21% to about 16%, while the proportion of men and women aged 60 and over will increase substantially from about 22% to 36-37%. The proportion of persons in the middle age group (20 to 60 years), which today is about 56%, is expected to be about 47% in 2050. If these advance calculations prove correct, the age structure of the population will be reversed, between 1950 and 2050, by an almost identical number of persons. In 1950 there were about twice as many persons under 20 as over 59; in 2050 there will be more than twice as many older persons as young ones.

The "structure of aging” is also changing and old age is itself taking on a new significance. So-called retirement is a separate stage of life for which the individual adult must be prepared and must make plans. Older persons today enter this phase, on average, in better health, with higher qualifications and better material security than older people enjoyed in the past. — A modern view of old age includes, besides insurance against the need for help or full nursing care, the creation of conditions under which the older generation can contribute actively to our society.

The society cannot do without the great potential knowledge which older persons’ experience represents. Older persons have a high level of involvement in social welfare and cultural activities, politics and sports. On average, one in three women and one in three men between age 60 and 70 is giving volunteer service of some sort — the same as the average for the entire population. This applies in an even greater degree to family relationships. Older women and men provide substantial amounts of care of grandchildren, help to other persons of retirement age and financial subsidies to children and grandchildren.

However, future changes in the positive perception of old age cannot be excluded, due to the increasing burdens represented by the costs of caring for older people. One of the most important problems here is the changing health situation of individuals in the population due to increased life expectancy, and the effect this has on the situation of those in need of help or full nursing care. The number of elderly, ill and disabled persons will undoubtedly increase. A particular challenge in this regard is the already significant increase in dementia-causing illness.

Extracts from the "Third Report on the Situation of the Older Generation in the Federal Republic of Germany...”, German Bundestag (Federal Parliament) Document 14/15130 of 19 January 2001.