4 - 2002

New immigration policies

Who’s coming, who’s going, who’s staying

by Wolfgang Kessler and Andrea Teupke

The latent fear on the part of many Germans of domination by foreign influences is out of proportion to the actual number of foreign immigrants in Germany. An objective look at the figures could help make the discussion more factual.

We want to reduce immigration. With this argument the CSU (Christian Social Union, the Bavarian partner of the current national opposition party in Germany, the Christian Democratic Union) has rejected the hard-won parliamentary compromise on an immigration law. In doing so, the Bavarian Minister of the Interior, Günther Beckstein, can be sure of applause from the majority of the population. There is a prevailing fear of immigration in Germany – because, among other reasons, fear is being created by the use of numbers.

The fact is that statistically at the end of 2001 around 7.3 million people without a German passport were living in Germany. The percentage of foreigners is around 8.9, which is high for a European Union country. However, the comparison is deceptive, since other countries allow foreigners to become naturalised much sooner. In Germany some so-called ”foreigners” are the grandchildren of the original immigrants.

The scare scenarios in which Germany is being overrun by hundreds of thousands of foreigners arriving each year don’t bear scrutiny. In the year 2000 the net gain from immigration was just 86,466. A total of 648,846 people moved to Germany, but during the same period 562,380 people left the country again. In the late 1990s there were even more people leaving than arriving.

For the year 1999, the migration report gave the following proportional figures: A total of 874,000 persons moved into the country. The largest share of them, over 300,000, were migrant workers; they included 273,000 seasonal workers, plus contracted works employees, artists, green card workers, etc. The second largest share, over 200,000, were Germans, not only emigrants returning from eastern Europe, but also expatriates returning from periods abroad. Some 135,000 persons came from EU countries. Emigrants returning from eastern Europe accounted for 95,000, and 95,113 persons were asylum seekers. The number of asylum seekers is steadily decreasing; in the year 2000 there were 78,564. This is a lower figure, in proportion to the total population, than in 11 other EU countries.

The number of immigrants whose families join them is also completely overestimated, implying that by this route an avalanche of additional foreigners is getting in. The reality is otherwise. Of the 75,888 visas granted in 2000 ”to allow spouses and families to be reunited”, the largest share went to the foreign spouses of German citizens. Only 17,699 children under 18 were counted, and in many of these cases the immigration law would not apply anyway. The heated discussion about lowering the age of children allowed to join their parents doesn’t make sense, since it only applies to a few hundred children aged between 12 and 18.

Where do the immigrants come from? Looking at the population with residence permits, Turks are the largest group, amounting to almost two million, or 27.4 % of foreigners with residence permits. The next largest groups are citizens of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, with 9.1 %; Italians, with 8.5 %; then Greeks, Poles and Croatians. Overall, at the end of 2000, about 25.7 % of all foreigners living in the German Federal Republic were citizens of EU countries.
At the same time the German population is shrinking. On average, 1.3 to 1.4 children are born per German woman. Without immigration, the population would decrease irreversibly – to only 59 million people in 2050, according to population researchers. This scenario has caused some to assume that the birth rate would gradually go up again, but at present there are no indications that this will happen.

The prospect of a less densely populated Germany would not be so threatening, were it not coupled inevitably with the accelerating aging of the population. At present there are 40 persons of retirement age for every 100 of working age, but this proportion will change – by 2050 it will be 84 to 100. This would inevitably bring about the collapse of the social welfare system.

Immigration alone can only lessen the impact of this problem to some extent. Birth rates among immigrants, too, fall quickly, to the degree that these people become better off. In addition, today’s immigrants are also tomorrow’s retired persons. To compensate in the long term for the deficit in the birth rate, the net rate of immigration would have to be 700,000 to 800,000 annually – a completely unrealistic figure, nine to ten times the actual rate.
The business sector, nevertheless, would be glad of more immigration. A lack of skilled labour and management personnel has been predicted, for example, by Klaus Zimmermann, head of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) in Berlin. Trade unions are critical of this estimate. After all, they fear ruinous competition for jobs, which are scarce anyway, and significant downward pressure on wages. These fears are justified at best if only less-qualified persons are allowed to immigrate. Highly qualified immigrants, on the other hand, could help to secure existing jobs or even create new ones.

The DIW points out that foreign residents, through their consumer spending, are already increasing demand and thus indirectly strengthening the labour market. Businesses owned by foreign residents already have over half a million employees in Germany. Research have worked out that in the period from 1988 to 1991 immigrants paid more in taxes and contributions than the total spent by the German state on services to immigrants. So Germany has also profited financially from immigration.

Experts agree that this can continue to be true in future – but only on condition that significantly more money is made available for integration measures. For example, the Netherlands spends the equivalent of 5000 Euros per immigrant on language courses. Each immigrant is required to attend 600 hours of classes in the language and the basics of Dutch culture. German society has the same choice: either it invests in integration, in order to profit from immigration, or it needs lots of money later on for social welfare and prisons.

Dr. Wolfgang Kessler and Andrea Teupke are editors of the bi-weekly Zeitschrift kritischer Christen Publik-Forum (Public Forum, the journal for critical Christians). This article appeared in issue No. 6/2002 of March 22nd.